Trouble In America

Never before in recent memory has an election by the sole world super – power been so crucial not just to the short term future of the United States, but for the long term future of the rest of the World.

Up until the last fortnight and before Super – Tuesday clouded the democratic issue further, barring some act of God, it looked almost inevitable that the Republican party would loose come November fourth. Now, in the aftermath of the latest round of primaries, the Republicans have all but settled on their nominee to face the Democrats and can now spend the next six months until the party conventions in August to do as much fund raising and PR to work up the almost impossible task of formulating a successful presidential campaign.

Now numerous hard – core democrats, desperate for real change, are worried that the infighting between the two remaining candidates Obama and Clinton has the possibility to go nasty over the remaining months until a winner is declared, most likely at the party conventions this summer. If no clear winner is recognised then the next few months will exhaust both candidates to the point that it could seriously jeopardise a national presidential campaign.

Two presidencies are in competition here; one driven bottom heavy to top run by a former community worker, the other running top heavy to bottom by a former veteran chief judge. There are fundamental structural differences between the two campaigns and the two prospective administrations, but instead of focusing on them as we should, were still fighting because one of the candidates is a black male and the other a white female.

The Republicans can now consolidate their new found advantage and rally behind John McCain. However, to do that, the conservatives on the far right of the party will have to get over their misgivings of the veteran Arizona senator. Many of these revolve around the views held by McCain to do with the more ‘traditional’ topics of the party. These include his more liberal stances on abortion, immigration and taxes. One of the first policies he has openly admitted to change, which has shocked some party officials, is to cancel Bush’s higher income tax breaks on individuals earning over $200,000 salaries. This, he has rationed, would provide the basis for his ‘universal health care’ system. This early plan is evidence enough for some conservatives that McCain just does not have what it takes to represent this very traditional side of the fence.

Firstly, persons earning over $200,000 in the Republican party have always tended to lean more to the far right and thus think it some what of a ‘birth right’ standard to have to pay lower taxes per proportion of their income, and see it as government meddling. The same applies to a ‘universal health care’ system openly trumpeted by McCain and is resented by the neo - cons.


McCain’s, and indeed the Republican Party’s as a general, saving grace (and it is a rather big one in this day and age of uncertainty and mid – term unpredictability) is foreign policy and national security. Even with the last seven years of an uber hawk administration that has cost the incumbent President the lowest ratings in nearly four decades, America is hungry for a Commander – In – Chief who will deliver against the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, both at home and abroad.

All three presidential hopefuls have varying experience on this matter, some more so than others, but all with a different appeal than the rest. McCain, for example, runs along the line most similar with Bush and Chaney in the need to halt Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons programme, overtly stating that he will do ‘everything’ in his power to make sure this never reaches a conclusion ending with a second nuclear armed Muslim state. He also has a wide experience with foreign policy having sat on numerous Senate comities over the years.

The same with Senator Clinton, she too has a vast understanding of the ins and outs of international diplomacy mainly due to her unique eight years as first lady, combined with her being a third term senator means she has a very popular appeal with the more right wing voters. So much so that numerous Republicans have started to side with her instead of McCain over his more liberal views (discussed above).

Finally the weakest of the three on foreign affairs, having virtually no experience in his still first term as US Senator, has the exclusive advantage of using his perceived weakness to his advantage. One thing more than any other ordinary Americans desire is change. Barrack Obama is alone in being a genuine change to the status quo, having talked before about his desire for open dialogue among some of Americas more undesirable world partners, including Iran.

Whichever party finally ends this most fixating of contests the winner, one thing remains certain; that the Democrats are the sure fire favourites to succeed this coming Autumn, but with the current un – certainty of the coming primaries, time is undeniably with the Republicans.

For the moment, at least.